NCAA Bracketology: Locked on target

Welcome back to The Ice Garden’s Bracketology column.  You can follow along from home using the PWR calculator the BCI’s Grant Salzano created from scratch here , on the site you can edit past and future results to see where the rankings would end up.

With only four weeks remaining there are clear tiers formed and we have our first lock in place.  The bracket is pretty simple this week though it could get a little crazy in the coming weeks.

Also let’s enjoy the relative simplicity of the PWR this year as next year is about to bring a new level of craziness as the unaffiliated D I and D II teams (Holy Cross, St. Michaels, St. Anselm, Franklin Pierce, Sacred Heart and Post) join together to form a Rebel Alliance.

Home Ice Locks

We have a lock.

Wisconsin

The Badgers seem to have pulled away from the pack. They are .07 ahead of 5^th place Clarkson in the RPI, meaning they are very unlikely to fall out of this position.  This earns them the first lock of the year

Home Ice Contenders

These are the teams that are in line to host alongside Wisconsin.

Boston College

St. Lawrence

Minnesota-Duluth

Clarkson

Minnesota

These teams have all fallen together and have little separation, two of these teams will travel. Right now they are Clarkson, the ECAC leaders, and the defending champs Minnesota.  BC will be heading into the Beanpot with a chance to really boost their resume if they draw Northeastern the second week.  The Saints are the safest in this category.

At Large Favorites

There is a huge disconnect between the top 6 and the rest of the country so it is doubtful anyone here or below will be hosting.

Robert Morris

Cornell

Quinnipiac

Right now Cornell is surging and Robert Morris is plummeting, while Quinnipiac is hanging around. Only two of them can make it and they have to hope for no upsets in the conference tournaments

Auto Bid Thieves

These teams, while talented, are unlikely to garner the PWR comparisons they need to get in without winning their tournaments, but each has shown both in the past and this season flashes that could propel them into some glass slippers.

Northeastern

Princeton

North Dakota

Boston University

Princeton has had the best recent streak and will get to play Quinnipiac next week.  Both Northeastern and BU have the Beanpot coming up that can show if they have a chance to steal the Hockey East bid.  North Dakota will be travelling to both Duluth and Minneapolis in the coming weeks

As Is Current Bracket:

1.     Wisconsin v 8. Robert Morris

2.     St. Lawrence v 7. Cornell

3.     Minnesota-Duluth v 6. Minnesota

4.     Boston College v 5. Clarkson

This bracket is one the committee would love to see come selection day.  Robert Morris will be flying no matter who they play, the rest of the matchups are all busses and match bracket integrity.

Likely Current Bracket

1.     Wisconsin v 8. Robert Morris

2.     St. Lawrence v 7. Cornell

3.     Minnesota-Duluth v 6. Minnesota

4.     Boston College v 5. Clarkson

This would be the bracket if it stands.  One option would be to switch Clarkson and Cornell to save on the Clarkson trip, but that would really mess with the integrity.

Matchup of the Week

Robert Morris @ Syracuse (1/27, 1/28)

Robert Morris is stumbling hard, and now sit only two points ahead of Syracuse in the CHA.  The Colonials took three points in the first matchup of the season but that was in PA.  Any further mistakes could cost them their chance at an at-large bid and also their chance at an auto bid making them miss the tournament.