2025 Worlds Preview: Japan

After barely avoiding relegation and finishing eighth overall in the 2024 IIHF Women's World Championship, the Japanese national team is seeking revenge. The team, affectionately called Smile Japan, is ranked seventh in the world and will head to Czechia with a dynamic squad featuring several promising prospects. In a tough field featuring the recently-promoted Hungarian and Norwegian national teams, can Japan do enough to keep their place in the top tier of the World Championship?

How They Got Here

Team Japan earned their slot in the 2025 World Championship through their eighth-place finish last year. They faced a daunting group of Sweden and Germany, who've both consistently appeared in the top-tier tournament, and the newly promoted national teams of China and Denmark.

Japan struggled from the start in the group stage. They lost three of their four games. In their first game, they lost to the Chinese national team 2-3 in a shootout. Japan then suffered a 1-4 loss to Germany and a 2-6 loss to Sweden. They managed to avoid relegation, though, thanks to a 3-0 win against Denmark.

Japan's win against Denmark and their four points overall qualified them for the quarterfinals (just barely), but as the lowest-seeded team, they drew the top-ranked United States as their quarterfinals opponent. The U.S. easily defeated them in a 10-0 shutout. But there was good news for Japan: even though that certainly wasn't the tournament they wanted, it still guaranteed them a place in Group B in this year's World Championship. They'll be joined by Germany, Sweden, Hungary, and Norway, as they fight to remain in Division 1.

Who to Watch

Look for Japan to focus on offensive firepower. The team has worked hard to improve their goal scoring in the recent Olympic qualification season, and it's paid off: Japan has qualified for their fourth straight Olympics. "We talked about the importance of increasing our offensive output before the tournament," head coach Yuji Iizuja explained after the team secured their slot at Milano-Cortina 2026.

Japan scored 17 goals and only gave up two goals over the three games of the qualification tournament, a significantly improved all-around performance compared to the 2024 World Championship. Much of this offensive improvement is thanks to Yumeka Wajima and Rui Ukita, who will likely be key contributors for Japan in the 2025 Worlds. They've shown that they're able to make the most of opportunities in high-stakes games, and they're a big reason why the team looks strong going into Czechia. Akane Shiga will also be central to Japan's efforts; she earned 9 goals and 22 assists in 34 games across the 2024-25 SDHL season for Luleå HF, and her offensive prowess will be critical as Japan fights to remain in the top division of the World Championship.

Japan's goalies will also be vital as they face a challenging Group B. The team will rely on the same goalie trio as the 2024 World Championship, consisting of Riko Kawaguchi, Hanuka Kuromaru, and Miyuu Masuhara. They turned in respectable performances, even though the score lines from last year's tournament might seem to say differently. Japan's focus on increasing their offensive strength since last year will hopefully pay off in a challenging Group B, but if the team wants to succeed in the tournament, they'll need their goalies to put up reliable performances and stop games from tipping into the 6-2 and 10-0 blowouts they experienced at the 2024 World Championship.

Key Storyline

Japan has appeared in the last four World Championships, finishing sixth, fifth, seventh, and eighth, respectively. These stubborn mid-Group B finishes present a key question for the national team: has Japan hit the ceiling of what they can do at the World Championship? Or worse, is the team's ability to compete against their peers in the chaos of Group B, with its ever-changing teams, starting to decline?

The Japan national team's performance in 2024 suggested that it might be the second option. That year, the team's results were especially challenging, because lots of things went wrong. Japan managed eight goals over their four group stage games, placing them comfortably third in Group B, but the offense didn't seem to wake up until they defeated Denmark 3-0 at the end of the group stage. And unfortunately, Japan let in quite a few goals too—the 13 they allowed in the group stage was the second-most in Group B, behind China's 15. That's not a winning recipe, and it showed when the U.S. national team handily defeated them 10-0 in the quarterfinals.

The new look Smile Japan, though, looks well prepared to take on a demanding Group B. Their efforts to improve their overall play, especially their offense, seem to have worked. For example, during the Olympic Qualifying Tournament, Japan again faced the Chinese national team. But instead of losing 2-3 in a shootout, they put up a commanding 4-1 win. This is encouraging for Japan's performance, if they can keep up that same offensive energy here.

So, in short, the key storyline for me is this: can Japan come out swinging at the 2025 World Championship? If they're able to keep up their recent offensive success, and the defense and goalies can shut down their opponents' offenses, they'll be in good shape to finish with a solid result this year. But if they can't get the offense going, then we might see a repeat of last year, where they just couldn't muster up goals when they needed them and finished eighth overall.

Prediction

I think Japan will finish in the top half of Group B, likely 6th or 7th overall. They've put in significant work over the past year to address the weaknesses in how they performed at the 2024 World Championship. It's true that Group B is dangerous—Germany and Sweden are consistently strong contenders, and newly-promoted Norway and Hungary will try to firm up their positions in Group B. But Japan's dominating performances at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament show that they've grown as a team and are now much more able to use their offensive weapons efficiently and shut down their opponent's scoring efforts. That approach they've honed over the past year will likely be very effective against their Group B opponents.

Will Japan's hard work pay off against Group A's powerhouses? This year, Group A features Canada, United States, Finland, Czechia, and Switzerland. All five teams play high intensity, high-scoring hockey, and as much as Japan has improved over the past year, I don't think they'll be able to keep up with Group A's powerhouses. I'm expecting Japan to be knocked out in the quarterfinals and finish sixth or seventh overall, reflecting their improvement over the past year. But there's certainly a chance that Japan surprises us all and makes it into the semis.