2025 Worlds Gold Medal Game Preview: USA vs Canada
Death, taxes, and the United States and Canada playing for women's hockey gold.
For the 23rd time in 24 tournaments, the North American teams will play for a gold medal at the IIHF Women’s World Championships. Puck drop is set for 6 p.m. local/12 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 20. But what should you expect when the archrivals face off yet again?
How’d We Get Here?
For starters, the U.S. and Canada faced off in the third game of the preliminary round, with the United States winning 2-1 to secure the top seed in the tournament. However, that hasn’t been a good thing recently, as the higher-seeded team has not won gold since 2021. That was likely the last time we will see these two powerhouses play each other in a preliminary game, as the tournament will transition to a "snake" seeding format next year, separating the two for the foreseeable future.
Overall, Canada went 3-0-0-1 in the preliminary round, defeating Finland 5-0 and Switzerland 4-0 before losing to the Americans. They then closed the group stage against Czechia, taking them down 7-1 thanks to a five-goal third period. They made easy work of Japan in the quarterfinals, defeating them 9-1 before besting Finland 8-1 in the semifinals.
However, scores aside, this tournament has been a little weird for Canada. Both the Czechia preliminary game and the Finland semifinal were extremely tight before Canada scored in a sudden burst. They led 2-1 against Czechia heading into the third period, and not quite six minutes in, Daryl Watts scored the first of three goals, each by a member of a different line, in 58 seconds. Then, against Finland, it was 2-1 Canada as the game approached the halfway mark before Watts again kicked off the burst. This time, it was four goals by three scorers in 1:58. That’s not a strategy that will work against the Americans. Canada must find a way to generate a more consistent attack from the beginning, or they won’t be happy with the result.
As for the Americans, they went 4-0-0-0 in the preliminary round, beating Finland 7-1, Czechia 4-0, Canada, and finally Switzerland 5-0. They beat Germany 3-0 in the quarterfinals before eking past Czechia in the semis, 2-1. Scores aside, they’ve been a high-volume offensive team this tournament. They’ve outshot their opponents by over 30 in four of their six games, with sub-ten shot advantages against Finland and Canada. They got quite a scare in the semifinals, but before that, there was rarely a doubt that Team USA would win any of their games. Even against Canada, the doubt only started to creep in during the Canadians’ third-period surge. Before that, Canada looked lethargic and generally not like the team the U.S. is used to seeing, although it's safe to say they'll be seeing a hungrier version all game with a medal on the line. While this all seems good, it could be problematic if Canada gets an early lead or the U.S. otherwise runs into adversity since they haven't had to deal with much this tournament.
Prediction
Historically, things could not be closer between the archrivals. The U.S. has won 19 all-time meetings at Worlds, while Canada has won 18. They’ve each scored 105 goals against the other. Both of them will want to set the tone in the final meeting of this caliber ahead of next year’s Olympics, which will likely be the last Olympic hurrah for some longtime players from both countries.
Based on everything we’ve seen, I think the Americans reclaim gold. They’ve had the more consistent tournament. Plus, goaltending is extremely important in these games. Aerin Frankel will surely be in goal for Team USA, and I expect to see Ann-Renée Desbiens at the other end of the ice. If that’s the case, Frankel is likely better prepared for this back-to-back than Desbiens, who Canada has been careful with after she entered this tournament fresh off rehabbing a knee injury sustained on March 18. The Americans would be smart to pour a lot of shots on her early to see if they can tire her out quickly. There's also the potential wrinkle of a Watts suspension for Canada. Early in the third period of the semifinals, Watts was assessed a major and a game misconduct for an illegal check to the head of Finland's Michelle Karvinen. She could face extra discipline for it, although it feels a bit unlikely after seeing all the angles the broadcast provided and given that the only game left is for gold. Still, it's something to monitor.
Anyway, I think we’re looking at another classic, heart-rate-raising one-goal game, albeit a less chaotic one than last year. These teams are simply too evenly matched to believe it will be a smooth win in either direction. Ultimately though, I believe we'll hear the Star Spangled Banner when it's over.
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