Hockey East 2025 Playoffs: Opening Round Preview

Well well well, if it isn't the most wonderful time of the year! Playoff season has started, and what better way to kick things off than in Hockey East? There are two games on Wednesday’s docket, and both are set to be interesting matchups in different ways. Let’s get into what to expect from our four teams!

Playoff Format

Before we get started, there are a couple of things about Hockey East everyone should know. The conference opted to switch to an all-teams-make-the-tournament format a few years ago, and so their opening round starts with two games: the seventh seed vs. the 10th seed, and an 8/9 matchup. 

Following the opening round, the two winners advance to the quarterfinal round the following Saturday. The highest remaining seed will head to Boston to play No. 2 Boston University, while the lower seed will take on No. 1 seed UConn. The other quarterfinals have already been set: No. 6 Maine at No. 3 Boston College, and No. 5 Northeastern at No. 4 Providence. 

The winners of each four games will then be re-seeded to make up the semifinal round on Wednesday, March 5th, before the winners of those two games will go to Storrs for the Hockey East Championships on the 8th. 

The standings at the conclusion of the regular season were as follows: 

1. UConn – 58 points (19-6-2 in conference)

2. Boston University – 57 Points (18-7-2 in conference)

3. Boston College – 51 Points (16-9-2 in conference)

4. Providence – 49 Points (16-9-2 in conference)

5. Northeastern – 46 Points (15-11-1 in conference)

6. Maine – 38 Points (10-14-3 in conference)

7. New Hampshire – 34 Points (11-14-2 in conference)

8. Vermont – 27 Points (7-18-2 in conference) 

9. Holy Cross – 25 Points (6-17-4 in conference)

10. Merrimack – 20 Points (5-18-4 in conference) 

Game One: No. 9 Holy Cross at No. 8 Vermont – 6 PM

Gutterson Fieldhouse, Burlington VT 

In last week’s roundup, I talked about how the weekend series between Holy Cross and Vermont gave us our first taste of playoff action, because with all likelihood these two teams were going to play one another in the opening round of this year's postseason. 

And I was correct! The Crusaders and Catamounts are set to square off on Wednesday in the first game of the 2025 Hockey East Tournament, just 11 days removed from HC’s weekend sweep. 

Over the last two games of the regular season, Holy Cross struggled against Maine who was looking to bypass the first round with some much needed points. The Crusaders were able to push the Black Bears to a tie on Saturday, before earning the extra point with a shootout win. This after Maine had already won 4-1 on Friday, and had cemented their spot at the sixth seed in the process. 

Vermont, on the other hand, is coming off two strong performances against Northeastern, games in which they beat the Huskies 3-2 on Friday, before playing a close game Saturday that they eventually dropped 3-1. 

If you’re looking for a more detailed breakdown of the last time the Crusaders and Catamounts met, let me turn you to the aforementioned weekly roundup. 

All told, Holy Cross has outscored the Catamounts 6-2 over three games, in which they took eight of a possible nine points from Vermont. HC also technically has more wins than UVM with a 10-19-4 record compared to 8-24-2, though four of HC’s wins came from out of conference, while just one came from Vermont’s non-Hockey East slate. 

On paper, frankly, Holy Cross appears to be the stronger team. 

Yes, the offensive numbers are fairly similar; in 33 games the Crusaders have scored 52 goals for a 1.6 goals per game pace, while Vermont has scored just 45 goals in 34 games, a 1.3 G/GM rate. Of all the teams in Hockey East, the two schools are ninth and 10th in the total goals department respectively, with Vermont having the fourth-lowest goals scored total in the NCAA, while Holy Cross is in sixth. 

Then we get to their power plays, which have been bottom of the barrel pretty much all season. Holy Cross’ 9.4 percent conversion rate is third-worst in Division I, which is tough considering they’ve had the sixth-most opportunities on the advantage with 117. Luckily for them, the last time they scored on the PP was against UVM. Though they then went 0-for-10 to close out the season against two of the worst-three PK’s in HEA (Vermont and Maine). 

Vermont isn’t far ahead, with a 10.3 percent conversion rate (fifth-worst in DI). They scored their lone goal on Saturday thanks to a power play tally against Northeastern, though they’ve scored just three power play goals total in 2025. Yikes. 

Defensively is where things are pretty different. Not only is HC’s average of 2.1 goals against per game better than the 2.9 Vermont is sporting, their penalty kill success is nearly 10 percent better. The Crusaders have the fifth-best PK in Hockey East at 85.2 percent (though they did also take the second-most penalties over the regular season, with 108 infractions). 

Vermont’s PK is most definitely not that. With just 91 infractions taken, the Catamounts only successfully killed the advantage 76.9 percent of the time, the worst rate in the conference. This is pretty on-par with their success (or lack thereof) on the PK a season ago, but considering the loss of scoring up front, it’s clear their struggles on the disadvantage have come back to hurt them over the course of the year. 

Then we turn to the goaltending. The Crusaders have been led predominantly this season by junior Abby Hornung, who in 24 starts has a .941 save percentage, the second best mark in the conference. The netminder has made all three starts against Vermont this season, making a combined 80 saves on 82 shots. This past weekend wasn’t the most productive for Hornung, but her combined 698 saves this season speak for themselves, along with her 1.87 goals against average.

On the opposite side of the ice is… a toss up? Maybe? Seniors Sydney Correa and Jane Gervais have both seen action in the last few weeks, though the latter has taken the majority of starts for Vermont this season. In six starts — three over the last three weekends, including a one goal-against performance against Holy Cross two weeks ago — Correa is operating a .906 SV%. One of her biggest places of concern is while her team is on the penalty kill, though I’d argue that’s much more because of Vermont’s overall kill rate than her goaltending. 

The goaltender that will probably be starting though is Gervais, who has been the predominant name in net for the Catamounts since she transferred from Wisconsin last off season. In 25 starts, the goalie has a .910 SV%, with two shutouts and a combined 639 saves. Gervais has been outstanding for Vermont when she’s needed to be, especially over the last few weeks. In fact, the goaltender has given up three or fewer goals in eight of her nine starts in the spring semester. 

Two names to keep an eye on scoring wise are Vermont sophomore Ashley Kokavec and Holy Cross sophomore Reghan Chadwick. The defender Kokavec had a goal and an assist over the weekend series against Northeastern, and closed out the regular season as the second-highest scoring player on the Catamounts with 15 total points. While she doesn’t always get the goals, her assists in the second semester have been critical for UVM, plus she had one of the only goals scored against Holy Cross this season back in November. 

Chadwick didn’t have the most productive overall season; however, in her last few games of 2024-25 we’ve seen her catch fire. The forward has had points in her last four games, including three-straight with a goal before Saturday’s contest against Maine (where she still picked up an assist). Chadwick scored both game-winners in the sweep of UVM two weeks ago, and has five total shots on goal across three games versus Vermont this season. 

Prediction: I think the earliest rounds might be the hardest to predict, just because of how unpredictable they end up being. Holy Cross last season beat BU in unlikely fashion, and while this year is closer I think there’s a higher chance for them to find themselves in the quarterfinals than not. 

On the other side though, there’s just something about a sweep in the regular season not panning out in the postseason, and considering the success Vermont had over the weekend, plus their home-ice advantage, I think this might be the win UVM has been looking for against HC. Although it will be close as most games between these two are. 

Game Two: No. 10 Merrimack at No. 7 New Hampshire – 7 PM 

The Whittemore Center, Durham NH

Later in the evening, we’ll find ourselves in the state just next door, where the Wildcats are set to take on the Warriors for the fourth time this semester. 

The first game between these two teams was back in January, where they combined for seven goals in the first two periods in an eventual 5-3 win for the Wildcats. Then, in the first series of February, the two teams met again. After jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the first period at home on Feb. 6, UNH needed OT to take down Merrimack, before sweeping the season series thanks to a 3-2 win at MC two days later. 

All three of these games have been relatively high scoring, which was honestly expected considering both teams' penchants for higher-octane offense this season. Overall, these are two fairly different teams even if the statistics are pretty comparable. 

We’ll start with Merrimack, who has long found themselves near the bottom of the standings since joining the conference in 2015. After finishing last season in ninth with seven wins in conference, the Warriors took a slight step back to fall into the last spot. Overall, in 27 Hockey East games they recorded just 20 points for a 5-18-4 record, while giving up the most goals in the conference in the process (86). 

UNH, though, had a further drop than almost anyone else (peep Northeastern’s fall… we’ll talk about it before Saturday) from the third spot all the way down to seventh. The Wildcats, after losing some of their biggest contributors from last season, went from 51 points to just 34 this season, at an 11-14-2 conference record. Yes, that record is still better than Merrrimack’s, but considering how they were a win away from the tournament championship game, the drop off is still fairly steep. 

Which brings us to Wednesday’s contest, the first time the teams have met in the playoffs since 2022 — a game in which Merrimack earned their first-ever Hockey East playoff victory. 

Statistically, everything leans in UNH’s favor. They score slightly more goals per game than Merrimack does, 2.0 vs 1.9. The Wildcats defense is also markedly better than MC’s, with 2.2 goals against per game — a full 0.8 less than the 3.0 GAA Merrimack has as a team. Not to mention the fourth-best PK in the country, with New Hampshire’s 88.9% kill rate throughout this season. 

Credit is due to the Warriors, though, after giving up 10 fewer goals on the disadvantage this season compared to last. Their 20 goals against on 95 times shorthanded gives them a 78.9% success rate, which yes is second-worst in Hockey East, but it’s still better than it has been in the recent past. 

One place Merrimack edges out UNH is in the power play department. After having one of the most successful units all season, the Warriors have just two power play goals since Jan. 24th, though one of those is against the Wildcats. And speaking of UNH’s top penalty kill, of the 10 goals against they’ve had all season, three of those have come off the sticks of Warriors (including two in the game in January). 

Not to be outdone, the New Hampshire power play is third in the conference at a 19.8 percent conversion rate on 86 attempts. The Wildcats also scored a PPG in that January game, and had a second in the Feb. 8th game as well — which started a three-game streak with a PPG for the team. They also have the edge in short handed scores, with three this season to Merrimack’s zero. What gives me the biggest pause is that while up a skater, the Warriors have allowed a shorthanded goal six times this season. 

UNH hasn’t given up a single one themselves. 

When it comes to goaltending, similarly to HC and Vermont it’s skewed heavily in favor of one team compared to the other. UNH sophomore Sedona Blair hasn’t had the same star powered season she had a year ago, though her .929 SV% is still sixth best in the conference. Across 29 starts the goaltender has 13 wins, including six shutouts, the second most in HEA. She’s been reliable when she needs to be, and most recently against Merrimack made 32 saves on 34 shots to take the win. 

Then for the Warriors, it will likely be junior Calli Hogarth, who has gotten the nod 23 times this year so far. In those 1400+ minutes, the goaltender has operated at a .904 SV%, tying the mark she set a year ago in the same amount of starts (but more minutes played). She did not start the most recent game against New Hampshire, and instead was flipped for freshman Margaux Favre who made 17 saves in the loss. 

One note for Hogarth is that last season in the two playoff games Merrimack had, she made a combined 63 saves on 68 shots, including a one goal effort against Maine to advance the team to the quarterfinals. She knows how to perform in these big moments, and I’d be surprised if she didn’t do that again this year.

There is also something to be said for momentum, which leans slightly in Merrimack’s favor. The last time UNH had an outright win was against the same Warriors team on Feb. 8th. Since then, they’ve gone 0-2-2, with just one shootout win over BU. The Warriors on the other hand also have had a lackluster last two weeks — but they have that more recent win thanks to a 4-2 performance against Providence Friday. Do I think that will really come into play here, considering they then dropped a 4-0 decision Saturday? No, but it can’t hurt. 

When it comes down to it, the teams are going to need big things out of offensive weapons like Sara Boucher (UNH), and Maria Lindberg (Merrimack).

Boucher, a grad transfer, has been instrumental for the Wildcats offense, finishing the season in a tie for second on the team in points with 18. In three games against Merrimack this season, she has four points, including a two goal effort in the most recent matchup between the squads. She has gone pointless since that performance against MC, and getting her scoring back in this game could be critical for UNH to succeed in the postseason. 

Then we have Lindberg, who finished as the top scorer on Merrimack’s squad with 11 goals and 19 points across 34 games. The sophomore has also been quiet over the last few weeks, but most recently had points in both games against UNH. All told, in the three contests this season, she had two goals and three points, including a power play goal back in January. 

Prediction: MC loves to play upset in the opening round, but while I said a season sweep can sometimes mean nothing, I think I’m going to have to go with the Wildcats on this one. It’ll be close, that’s for sure, but considering how much stronger certain facets of UNH’s game have been this season, I’d be hard pressed to go against them in the first round of the postseason. Stranger things have happened, though, and MC hasn’t missed a quarterfinal since 2021 — a year they didn’t even make the tournament.

Programming Notes: 

You can catch both games on ESPN+ with Holy Cross at Vermont scheduled for 6 PM, and Merrimack at UNH scheduled for 7 PM. 

The game between the Warriors and Wildcats will also be on NESN for viewers within New England. 

Full streaming details for all the playoff games this week are available here.